Bart Sinclair's Melbourne Cup Preview 

Vastly experienced Melbourne Cup handicapper Greg Carpenter believes a case can be made for several of Incentivise’s rivals.

On current betting trends Incentivise, pre-post sitting at $2.35, will start the shortest priced favorite since Phar Lap was successful at 11-8 on in 1930.

Carpenter who has been in charge of the Caulfield- Melbourne Cup weights since 2005 respects Incentivise’s credentials particularly his domination Caulfield Cup victory also is very aware of the difficulty of winning the Cup with the 57kg he has asked the five-year-old to carry.

Since racing went to metrics in 1972 84 Cup runners have carried 57kg or more. Just three – Makybe Diva (58kg – 2005); Gold And Black (57kg – 1977; Think Big (58.5kg – 1975) – have won.

“It’s a significant statistic. Incentivise is a remarkable horse. Twelve months ago he had started once and was well beaten in an Ipswich Maiden. It’s incredible what he has achieved since then,’’ Carpenter said.

“There have been ten horses start $3 or shorter in the Cup and only two won – Phar Lap in 1930 and Revenue in 1901.

“I think there are a number of horses of interest. Spanish Mission is in the top five highest rated stayers in Europe. If he brings his best form he is a chance even though he has to carry 57kg as well.

“Twilight Payment is in better form than last year when he won with 55.5kg, or 2.5kg than he has this year.’’

Twilight Payment is striving to become the sixth horse to win back-to-back Cups. He also will become the oldest horse to win the glamour 3200 metres test.

Carpenter is also interested by European three-year-old Sir Lucan who is registered as being four in the Southern Hemisphere.

Sir Lucan’s form was highly promising before he ran below expectations in the St Leger over 2916 metres at Doncaster in early September. The Cup will be his first run for training partnership Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott.

European three-year-olds Rekindling and Cross Counter were successful in the Cup 2016 and 2017.

While the Cup preparation has been largely revised in the past 20 years form out of the Hotham Handicap at Flemington can still be a reliable pointer. Chris Waller’s lightweight hope Great House was strong at the end of his win at Flemington on Saturday.

BART’s TIPS

2. INCENTIVISE

12 Persan

23 Great House

22 Floating Artist